Record low realized volatility correlates 100% with record low "stress" as indicated by the Fed financial stress model. Meaning they are both backwards looking indicators of risk, as is the VIX:
Record shorting of volatility when volatility is at record lows and markets are at record highs, is like buying subprime bonds in a collapsing housing bubble...
"2017 marks the first year in which the Dow has had two winning streaks of 10 sessions or longer since 1959"
"it's a healthy uptrend and we think it should continue."
1959 over and over again, forever.
"the performance of the Dow is "really not reflective of what the broader market is doing."
In the meantime, the perfect weapon of mass destruction has been constructed amid record complacency:
Year to date performance of global "reflation":
The S&P 500 is joining the Dow at new all time highs, as I write...
"Don't worry, collapse is perfectly priced in to the Fed model"