Thursday, August 3, 2017

The $100 Trillion Dollar Question

Can the least paid and hardest working people who've been shit on for eight years straight, now save the Supply-Side Casinotopia consisting of massively misallocated capital and zero demand?

It depends upon how many good-paying jobs had to go under the bus to make the quarter...

"Cramer said he was "shocked" that Caterpillar had this level of earnings power. How many people did these guys get rid of?"

Remember these following words, because I'm going to come back to them when this all ends:

"We can't afford a higher minimum wage"

How this all ties back to the casino...

"Small-caps, which led the market's rally just after the Nov. 8 election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, are facing weak earnings forecasts, little progress on tax reform and recent outflows

Investors had expected the administration of Republican Trump, with his promises of aggressive tax cuts and a healthier U.S. economy, would be a boon for small-caps, which tend to be more domestically focused."

analysts estimate earnings for S&P 600 companies declined 8.3 percent in the second quarter

Small-cap earnings growth has been trailing large-caps for the last four years, and that continues to be the case in the first half of this year...Large-caps have benefited from recent weakness in the U.S. dollar .DXY, which makes foreign currency earnings for U.S. companies worth more in dollars.

That does not bode well for valuation metrics for small-caps, which the bank calls "the most expensive segment of an expensive market."

These are the two things killing small caps right now:

"U.S.-based small-cap funds have recorded five straight weeks of withdrawals."

Who cares?

The S&P 500/Treasury ratio is tracking small caps 1:1, as money comes out of stocks back to bonds...

The money is not going back into large caps