There's a political cage match going on inside human history's largest bubble. Neither side wants to admit that their vaunted status quo is imploding in broad daylight. Trump's asinine tweets about the strength of the economy would be a bit more laughable if both sides were not equally wed to his end-of-cycle con job...
Consumer Staples % bullish (percentage of stocks in uptrend):
The amount of fake news flying around is unprecedented. Both sides desperate to claim the high ground with their own ludicrous narratives while the status quo implodes in broad daylight. The Consumer Confidence numbers released on Friday tell the true story - fake confidence in the economy has actually equalized between parties since the election...
"When President Donald Trump promised to return the economy to 4% annual growth, and later to 3%, several economists said it was an unrealistic goal. And now, consumers think so too...The declines recorded are now consistent with just above 2%."
"The weakness in the index of consumer expectations was biggest among Republicans, while Democrats' hopes remained low, although they had improved since the election"
Speaking of fake news, fake complacency is rampant. On Friday, the VIX recorded its lowest close since 1993 at 9.5. Based on VIX mathematics, this is supposed to mean that the casino will move 9.5% up or down over the next 12 months. However, the last time the VIX was this low for an extended period of time, the market fell -55% in two years. In other words, contrary to ubiquitous belief, the VIX is not forward looking, it's backward looking, compliments of the Black-Scholes option pricing model which uses historical volatility as a proxy for future vol...
Because it turns out that no one has figured out how to predict the future yet. But one thing we know with certainty, downside surprise beyond a gentle decline, is not "priced in"...
Meanwhile, I call this current rally the blowoff junk phase. Because as we see above, quality dividend stocks such as consumer staples have left the party whereas, shit stocks with no earnings or revenue are now "leading".
Box sells dollar bills for 65 cents, having a net profit margin of -35%...
Here is the Chinese Internet ETF, which combines the most questionable stocks from the most questionable stock market into one easy to lose everything package:
Ethereum update
Somebody's underwear is soiled, and I'm pretty sure it's not mine...
Bitcoin (Bitstamp, $USD)
This rally should last a few minutes...
