Saturday, June 3, 2017

The American Century Just Ended

The dollar is signaling the end of smoke and mirrors hegemony...Up until now, the U.S economy has been universally viewed as the strongest in the world. Those inside the U.S. and outside will be equally surprised to learn that it's a Potemkin economy...

Donald Trump is an inappropriate President and has not delivered anything more than a Potemkin Presidency.

Trump’s tenure has been a faux string of executive orders that cannot be enforced, tweets without substantiation, photo opportunities about health care and other laws that won’t pass, and a few rallies spouting unattainable promises to bolster his ego and support.

For the first time in history, polls show the vice president is more well-liked than the president

"As hiring and wages eased in May, investors scaled back their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Fed fund futures are no longer pricing in a 100% chance of a hike in June and the odds of 2 more hikes this year have fallen below 50%"

U.S. Payroll growth has been decelerating since May 2015:

The USDJPY carry trade has supported U.S. stocks, but now lags well behind the U.S./ Japan yield spread which is collapsing.

Gamblers remain out of position, still net short the Yen:

Herein lies the problem for U.S. bond yields:

Bond yields follow inflation expectations.

And inflation expectations follow...

"That's not a collapse in the dollar, this is..."

The U.S. dollar was already diverging massively from short-term yields. Now that yields are rolling over, look out below...

"The next 2 weeks is the “quiet period” before the FOMC meeting, so there won’t be any comments from U.S. policymakers to bolster those expectations. For this reason, we expect the U.S. dollar to underperform over the next 8 days ahead of the June 14 FOMC meeting"

Back in the day when I was a gambler this was a bad time to own risk...

The days when Potemkin idiots rule the world is ending...

Unfortunately, the hot money has to go home...

"We're not going to participate in any 'deals' that don't put America ahead of the rest of the world"