Monday, June 26, 2017

OPEC Muppets Are Capitulating

The last part of the Trumpflation trade that gamblers have been clinging to, is oil...

Crude oil may see further pain ahead after logging a five-week losing streak and tracking for its worst first-half percentage fall since the late 1990s

Due to the inventory cycle, it's very rare for crude oil to fall in the first half of the year ahead of the peak summer driving season. Right now, the seasonal inventory drawdown period which begins in the Spring is half over, meaning likely another higher low in inventories this year:

To be more specific, crude oil prices peaked in June for the past three years, except this year...

Here we see the contango (futures rollover) cost imposed upon serial OPEC muppets

U.S. Oil ETF

Under the 2016 bottoming scenario, crude oil gamblers have to take their positions down a further 50% from where they were reported this week. Under the 2009 scenario, they have to flip from net long to net short, which is the more likely situation given inventories.

Meaning that record volume selling has just started: