Sunday, May 21, 2017

The Wizards Of Lies

Stoned gamblers are making a record (short volatility) bet on the Manchurian Candidate or his impeachment, it's not clear which. What the de facto Idiocracy is about to find out is that there wasn't just one Bernie Madoff, there is an entire generation of Bernie Madoffs...

Here we see the U.S. output gap (Actual GDP - Potential GDP) (blue) with the U.S. Federal deficit. 

Ponzi schemers are literally papering over recession with borrowed money. And suffice to say, were it not for the dollar reserve currency, all of this *Free* Trade hegemonic entitled bullshit would have ended a long time ago. No other country in the world can run the chasmic trade deficits the U.S. runs:

IQ test for proven zombies. Which direction will these lines go next?

Here is U.S. Federal debt (blue) with the trade deficit (red)

Speaking of dollar reserve currency, this entire charade hangs on the next piece of macro data, the next Fed dead head to admit they were wrong, or the next deranged Tweet from Forrest Chump.

Here is the U.S./ Japan yield spread, which clearly shows that the Trump premium is still for some reason in the U.S. 10 year.

Some of us remember this movie from 2011. Bueller?

Lastly, VIX Futures net speculative shorts reached a new record this week (bottom pane):