Friday, May 26, 2017

The Moron Bubble: 2008 x Y2K

An IQ test for who could be conned three times in a row by the exact same psychopaths, while worshipping the false idol of competitive consumption...

The DotCom bubble was based upon the monetization of the internet. The Housing Bubble was as an experiment in using homes as ATM machines. This is the moron bubble, based upon the ubiquitous belief that printing money is the secret to effortless wealth...

Post-2008, EconoDunces knew they couldn't reflate the real economy since it was being arbitraged away for corporate profit, so instead of inflating the economy, they inflated asset valuations instead. Therefore even as the underlying economy was losing value, the prices paid for it would be gaining value via the fake wealth effect. This may sound like a good idea in theory, but it comes with some problematic after-effects. For those who already owned financial assets this was great, since it allowed them to cash out at higher valuations, assuming they were smart enough to realize this was their last chance to do so. Unfortunately for anyone who spent their hard earned money buying stocks in the meantime, they were paying prices that bear no relation to reality. The bagholder effect.




RepubliCons have amply proved for the historical record that they are the party of dedicated morons. This is not a political statement it's merely a statement of inconvenient fact.



"Democrats expect a recession and Republicans expect strong growth"

Doesn't Faux News warn these people that they're being conned?




 Stock market cap / GDP:




Wilshire total cap index / U.S. Federal debt







Those with top-heavy fears might worry about the underperformance of one gauge linked to the S&P that gives more weight to smaller stocks, he adds. But it’s “not really a big deal” as the equal-weight S&P is up 6.2% this year, not that far behind the regular index’s 7.9% rise, he says.






"Once Trump gets out of jail, he will cut taxes. He said he would..."







Second loans, such as home equity lines of credit (HELOC), are booming. HELOC originations were up 10 percent year over year in 2016, hitting an eight-year high, according to Black Knight Financial Services, and they continue to rise.

Ironically, the new boom comes just as the pain of the last home equity line boom is ending. 







Good news, our mega bubble is intact, but the U.S. is imploding:

"The weakness in BMO's Q2 results was largely a Made In The USA issue, led by a big jump in commercial loan loss provisions, but also impacted by a dramatic slowdown in commercial loan growth"


FP: Repeat After Me, There's No Systemic Risk From Home Capital Group







Fed:
"We call this threading the needle"




Wall Street:
"Don't worry, we found a new way to make money, betting that Central Banks got this rate normalization exactly right..."



"...and betting that OPEC's output cut is working..."