The preliminary selection of French Presidential Candidates Macron and LePen have put the fate of Globalization in the hands of France. Polls currently give overwhelming advantage to the Centrist candidate Macron, therefore, that advantage can only dwindle over the next two weeks to the final election. In other words, the best case scenario is being priced into futures RIGHT NOW.
Similar to Trump versus Hillary, regardless of personal opinions of the two candidates, the contrast between the two finalists could not be more stark:
Macron's pro-EU, pro-globalization world view, and Le Pen's call to close borders and quit the euro currency
What all Nationalist movements have in common, the understanding that Globalization benefits very few:
Risk markets are soaring on this "good news", however, markets now need to remain bid for the next two weeks, because any unwinding of speculative appetite will only fuel uncertainty at a threepeat thumbs down on Globalization. One which could unhinge the EU.
Risk markets are soaring on this "good news", however, markets now need to remain bid for the next two weeks, because any unwinding of speculative appetite will only fuel uncertainty at a threepeat thumbs down on Globalization. One which could unhinge the EU.
By total coincidence, the British Columbia Provincial election is also that same week, May 9th. The incumbent right-wing party is heavily favoured to win, however, similar to leadership in every other jurisdiction right now, their policies are 10x leveraged to Globalization. In other words, any RISK OFF market event will now determine whether or not Vancouverites perceive their largest-in-the-world bubble as a net positive, or a net negative. Suffice to say, the amount of corruption the electorate have ignored from the incumbent government is a testament to the power of Social Mood vis-a-vis a 30% manic melt-up in real estate during 2016.
In the meantime, the foreign buyers tax they implemented last August merely pushed Asian buyers to Toronto, Seattle, and San Francisco. Therefore, the Ontario government reactively implemented their own foreign buyers tax in the past week, following a 30% one year manic rise in property values. Bueller?
In other words, for those who desperately believe in the status quo, this is a winner-take-all market set-up...
France CAC:
France CAC:
Risk appetite which is already close to the post-Brexit high has to keep rolling as it did post-Trump:
Which is a tall order, because you can only go ALL IN once...
The biggest delusion we live under - which is saying something, since this is all one colossal delusion - is this belief that as long as interest rates never rise, the bubbles will never end. Reality can be cheated, as long as it's assiduously avoided forever. Leave aside the fact that U.S. interest rates ARE rising, because that fact alone obviates this fantasy that bubbles can grow indefinitely - they don't end, they are ended. As far as the indefinite bubble delusion, we need look no further than Japan which has the most accommodative Central Bank in world history. Their 10 year is the only one in the world FIXED to 0%. And, the BOJ was the top buyer of Japanese stocks in 2016.
Nevertheless, they have the weakest stock market this side of Venezuela right now.
Just because someone spends a million dollars for a brick, doesn't make the brick worth a million dollars. Duh. Today's pseudo-elite are a desperate bunch of total fucking morons, doing "whatever it takes" to keep themselves from experiencing the same fate as everyone else they've already fucked over...
