Monday, January 2, 2017

100x Leveraged To Insanity

The Idiocracy's plan is to hurl themselves into a brick wall at 100 miles per hour. They asked for a solid plan, and who could argue?

Prechter was right, they're just buying up overvalued junk and making up reasons afterwards for owning it. Case in point, oil...

2016 was the year of OIL. Retracement.

Because despite non-stop bullshit, Oil has gone exactly NOWHERE for two years straight, closing 2016 at the same level as 2014. And you can see from my wave count applied to Energy stocks that I'm not overly optimistic on overlapping waves that go nowhere for two years straight: 

Energy stocks (red) with Oil:

"Money managers’ wagers on rising West Texas Intermediate crude prices are triple what they were at the end of 2015"

Taking into account the OPEC/NOPEC supply cut, even if it actually occurs (this week), the daily oversupply is still 700,000 barrels per day, globally:

Production (green), demand (red):

Which means that on the demand side, there is zero margin of error in OPEC's sunny prediction that oil demand will rise during 2017 to close the remaining supply overrun.

And, no surprise, they have not recalibrated their predictions since Trump got elected and monkey hammered EM currencies aka. "marginal demand":

"There’s plenty of hope that prices are supported and move higher and very little fear that compliance will be poor and prices will drop."

Oil bottoms in late February. At least it has the past two years...