Wednesday, January 25, 2017

I'll Take Reality For Everything, Alex

The entire rest of the world is not interested in funding America First. Any longer, I mean...

No exceptional circus clowns saw that coming:


Bueller?
"the president's broad but divisive plans to reshape U.S. immigration and national security policy rattled some investors partly as the U.S. needs foreign capital to finance its large current account deficit." 

Borrowing from third world nations to finance budget deficits is now known as "GDP". Hence, no surprise, Dow 20,000 coincides with debt $20 trillion...

But first, how long until the parabolic Nasdaq has an island reversal of fortune?

w/new highs (red):


The dollar index is right at the 100 support level having already broken down through the breakout fakeout level...


Rising global bond yields are pulling money back out of the U.S., in conjunction with extreme currency risk from over-owning U.S. dollars...

The same sequence occurred in 2008...




Meaning hot money overnight risk is still being assiduously ignored...
VIX (red) with USDJPY

The circled long tails were limit down events in the S&P:



Financials and the dollar have parted ways. For now...


Oil was the other problem today. Weak dollar and weak oil, haven't seen that in a long time...


Arguably the biggest risk for gamblers is the reflationary pair trade put on since the election: long stocks, short bonds. As bonds and stocks are now trading in inverse lockstep.

As we see however, stocks made a new high today, whereas bonds did not make a new low, which portends badly for continued divergence...

Financial suicide visualized:




This can better be seen via Treasury yields versus stocks

Yields did not confirm the new high in stocks today...




The suicide trade is on in record size...

Bond shorts with S&P:




A new chart is the volume oscillator:
The Percentage Volume Oscillator (PVO) is a momentum oscillator for volume. PVO measures the difference between two volume-based moving averages as a percentage of the larger moving average...Chartists can use this information to confirm or refute movements on the price chart.



New Dow highs


TRIN: Selling intensity


The next leg down in big banks and shit gets real...
JP Morgan




Wells Fargo with Treasury bond yields

Doh!!!