Sunday, December 11, 2016

Oil Supernova

Everyone talks about oil supply, when they should be worried about oil demand...

Oil is spiking in the overnight futures as yet another "deal" is announced to cut production between OPEC and non-OPEC members. 

It appears that U.S. oil production is ramping up well ahead of the implementation of any actual "deal", which is set to take effect Jan. 1:

Meanwhile, post-OPEC-deal data shows that U.S. producer short positions are the highest on record, as they hedge out future production:

Which on the supply side, means that ex-short covering, the peak will soon be in, and then some...

Now, on the demand side, the strength of the U.S. dollar, seen here via $CAD, would imply lower oil prices ahead:

Last December circled:

On the other hand, the recent surge in U.S. inflation expectations suggests oil at $65:

However, then we recall that the transitory "inflation" spike is minimum wage-based, so we can rest assured that the spike in oil will be short-lived...

And therefore, will bring about the biggest decimation of global capital in human history without any relevant comparison...

Oil price with U.S. wage CPI


In short, the Canadian dollar isn't buying into any of this serial bullshit, and neither is this Canadian: