Thursday, December 22, 2016

The Last Pump And Dump: No More Dumb Money

Social mood is in latest stage blow-off mode. How do we know?

BitCasino. How else?

It appears that when speculators can't find enough uranium stocks to pump and dump following tweets from the anti-Christ about nuclear weapons expansion, they inevitably turn to Bitcoin to get their final junky fix...

This is Bitstamp

As we see, in retracement form, Bitcoin has regained a significant percentage of prior losses. We also see that this particular exchange flash crashed to 0 on Brexit. Lastly, recent price action has been vertical while volume is above recent average, although well below prior peaks: 

Here is where it gets interesting...

Overlaying the S&P 500, we see that the last time Bitcoin went into manic blow-off mode, was the top in the Fall of 2015 and then again, in the lead up to Brexit, which preceded a flash crash in the S&P futures, as well as Bitcoin. 

Getting more specific, Bitcoin tends to peak right after the Nasdaq:

In summary, the high beta junk cyclical stocks that have been leading this rally are now out of gas. And are ready to catch down to EM currency reality. You know, like last year:

Pumped and Dumped:
Likewise, the growth/value ratio (red) in conjunction with IPOs is signalling that the animal spirits have been fully monetized for this cycle. There is no more dumb money to be had...