Tuesday, November 29, 2016

NOWHERE TO HIDE: Duped By Dunces

Idiocratic logic has reached its end game.

Best case scenario:
1) OPEC members agree to cut production
“The outcome of the meeting is likely to be some form of compromise by the medium-size and smaller producers as they are desperate to get Saudi Arabia on board, and most will assume both that they can cheat with some degree of impunity, and that observance of quotas will weaken over the course of several months"

"We'll target Q2 output and then we'll all cheat to get back to Q3 record output. They won't notice, they're proven serial idiots"

2) OPEC reaches no agreement

3) OPEC freezes output at record levels. Which is the dumbest fucking thing I've heard of in my entire life

4) Postpone until next circle jerk. Which is the same as #2

Meanwhile, the sector(s) that will do best if they don't reach an agreement:

"If doomsday happens, the bright spots will be airlines and ocean shipment companies, both which benefit from weak oil."

Airlines have already priced in $0 oil:

And blind man says, Marine Transportation doesn't benefit from lower oil. Because oil is carried by Marine Transport.


What does that leave...

Big Cap Tech/Internet
Small Caps
High Beta
Low Beta/Yield
Emerging Markets
Rest of World


Keynesian bombing of foreigners

Where Wall Street hides at the end of every economic cycle...