Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Babbo Natale Rally In Jeopardy

Let's see, reflationary false dawn/Cyclical headfake PLUS a looming Fed rate hike.

And just to be clear, the Fed has never actually been dumb enough to raise interest rates at this point in the cycle. 

They've held rates twice before...
Fedrate (black) with One year Treasury (red) and JnJ:

OPEC circle jerk, Wednesday.


Brexit 3.0 this Sunday:

"If "no" wins in next Sunday's referendum — most polls put it about 6 percentage points ahead of the "yes" camp — market turmoil and turbulence should follow"

"Senior bankers and officials said that the worst-case scenario was where a failure of Monte Paschi's complex €5bn recapitalisation and bad-debt restructuring demanded by regulators would translate into a wider failure of confidence in Italy and imperil a market solution for its ailing banks,"

Renzi, 41, has staked his political future by suggesting he would resign if he were to lose, and the first projections of the result are due just before midnight Rome time.

Volatility in the euro against the dollar approached levels seen just after Trump’s win as markets adjusted to the possibility that a defeat for Renzi might trigger early elections and gains for Five Star Movement, a populist group that wants a referendum on Italy’s membership of the euro.