Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Generation Madoff Conned Themselves This Time

Everyone is on the wrong side of the boat. The next piece of bad macro data that comes along, they're fucked company. Stampeding out of high beta junk stocks into a no bid market...

Do you know why Bernie Madoff got caught? Because he forgot that he was running a Ponzi scheme, so like a dunce he stayed to the end until it imploded. Likewise, today's stoned geriatrics just assume that their kids are the ones who are going to get shafted, with more Ponzi tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and other intra-generational plundering; little do they know they're the ones who are going to implode. Because the only sign of "reflation" is the one they've fabricated in their Faux News addled Twinkie brains. Throwing their money away on junk cyclicals at the end of the cycle while telling themselves that the economy they outsourced is floating back from China. 

It only took eight years, but they finally bought the "reflationary" fantasy hook, line, and sinker. In a world with excess everything, the sheer idea that there could be sustained inflation in absence of a well-paid "consumer" is asinine. It's a testament to how oblivious econoDunces are to the global poverty disaster they themselves have created.  

And today's OPEC meeting very likely signals "Peak Oil", but of course in the exact opposite way that gamblers expect - Very likely the highest oil prices that will be seen for a long, long, time...

But first, following the Trump shocker, global investors wholesale abandoned the bond market. Meaning that global monetary tightening is underway:

Donny just monkey hammered bonds for their worst month EVER:

"Calling an end to the three-decade bond bull market is no longer looking like a fool’s errand"

There's only one problem. EVERYTHING gets priced off of Treasuries, and it's shocking that casino gamblers chasing Dry Ships and other parabolic junk don't know that fact. 

Meaning that Treasuries can't implode without taking everything else down with them. Far more likely yields back up until everything implodes and then Treasury bonds rally in RISK OFF mode.

Let's take a look:

Start with the obvious, we've seen this movie before...
One year Treasury with Fed funds rate:

USDJPY having the same rally as 2008 alongside small banks:

Russell / Dow (Small cap rally) overlapped with small banks as well:

IPOs with Brokers:

Consumer staples




Big Pharma

Rest of the World:


And what about Peak Oil Prices?

This looks right now, doesn't it?

WTI (black) withe Energy Stock overthrow (red):