Saturday, November 5, 2016

CasinoNomics aka. Imagined Reality

"Printing money was their secret to effortless wealth..."

From a pure gambling perspective, speculators went ALL IN on Brexit, which means not withstanding short, sharp, short-covering rallies, there are no real buyers below this market...

Markets have been moving towards RISK OFF since September:



Growth / value ratio
Small cap growth / Dow:



The IPO Mutual Fund tells the tale of risk appetite. Central Banks coordinated intervention last March during the Shanghai Accord and again in July post-Brexit:




Large cap tech peaked last - one week ago - and broke down hard this week:

Nasdaq 100 with RSI:



The third and last volatility cycle has begun

Nasdaq:




Confirmed by Inverse Volatility



And confirmed by Amazon which blew their quarter, missing analyst earnings expectations by 30%...



Google beat, but rolled over anyway...



Facebook forecast a sequential revenue decline and therefore can't be bought until "visibility" improves. Wall Street is way out of position on this one...



And Netflix, which has a perfect track record for predicting the last three 10%+ market declines...




World's largest stock missed this quarter as well...



And Biotech is getting monkey hammered:




No surprise, market liquidity (Inverse cash balances) is tracking the internet fund. IN and OUT:



Semiconductors usually rally at the beginning of the cycle not the end. Intel shows how far gamblers are out over their skis. This will be the hardest landing...

"We're owed another 8 year fake rally, dammit"


Speaking of hard landings...

Chinese stocks with Chinese fake GDP: