Saturday, July 2, 2016

"It's Called Circle Jerk-o-Nomics"

Seven years of lying bullshit followed by collapse. And then seven more years of lying bullshit followed by a far bigger collapse...

The only problem with Social Mood Theory is that it ignores the all-important Idiot Feedback loop, whereby stoned gamblers work backwards from current stock holdings to reverse engineer economic "predictions". And all-knowing EconoDunces talk exclusively to other all-knowing dunces. Therefore, I've coined Circle-Jerk-o-Nomics, how seven years of risk can be ignored and then "discovered" in the last minute when Etrade is not open for business...

FINANCIAL RISK DASHBOARD FOR JUNE

"See, the S&P 500 is the only safe haven"

Everything is lower since the June 23rd Brexit vote, except U.S. stocks, because casino gamblers bidding up their own stocks know better than every other asset class on the planet...


What about oil? WTI peaked on June 8th with U.S. stocks:



I'm not one to dissect Idiocratic logic, but it begs the question, if they were buying into the vote, and buying the week after the vote, then why knee-jerk sell on the Friday in between?

And the answer of course lies in this chart right here. The Brexit vote was wave 1 (red) down, and this past week's really was wave 2 up. Meaning the sell-off was going to happen regardless...




In Social Mood terms: manic, panic, manic, ______ ?

Panic




Mind the gap 'n crap:
S&P overnight gaps with Nasdaq:

Wave 1 down was all overnight and so was wave 3 in January...




The count stands