Sunday, July 3, 2016

Crash Landing @ FULL IDIOCRACY

When loud all-knowing buffoons take over society, it's game fucking over...

"They declared independence from intelligence, by outsourcing the economy for special dividends, and then betting their life savings on the casino instead. It just seemed easier..."

The conventional wisdom is to look at bond yield spreads to determine where we are in the economic cycle. The spread is the short-term yield minus the long-term yield and they typically converge at the end of the cycle...

ZH: June 3, 2016

There's only one problem. There has been 0% recovery this time. So yield spreads are actually totally meaningless and are vastly understating economic risks. The yield spread is supposed to converge UP, not fucking DOWN:

A downward converging yield curve doesn't indicate recession, it indicates DEPRESSION...When both yields start going down together (blue arrows), the cycle is over. This cycle ended in December after one rate hike:

This is a crash landing at 0%