Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Because "More" Was Never Enough

Prechter was right, this is all 100% social mood. Idiots keeping up with idiots...

"The bull is just one rally away from making history. And Wall Street will be able to enjoy this one, especially after suffering through the worst start to a year ever in 2016."

CNBS and its acolytes are waiting with baited breath to see if the S&P 500 will make new all time highs. The vast majority of U.S. stocks are below their all time highs, and no other market outside the U.S. is at new highs. Only a very small cadre of massively overowned stocks are holding up this entire delusion. This market exhibits the exact same characteristics as the 1973 Nifty Fifty Bubble...Except of course, this isn't 1973...

When the last few mega caps roll over, we will experience the Elliott Straight Down Wave:

USA Today April 1, 2014
Remember the Nifty Fifty?
The 50 stocks identified by Morgan Guaranty Trust represented some of the fastest-growing companies on the planet in the latter half of the 1960s. Their popularity among institutional and individual investors sparked a quantum shift from "value" investing to a "growth at any price" mentality 

Deemed "one-decision" stocks, the Nifty Fifty were meant to be bought and not sold. 

Along came the stock market collapse of 1973-74, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 45% in just two years

"You can say the S&P 500 or the Nifty Fifty will make you rich, but they can also make you gray and die prematurely."

Global stock markets one year performance:
Canada and Australia are currently below their 2007 highs. Europe is below its Y2K high. The Nikkei is below its 1990 high. 

Within the U.S., only the Dow and S&P are near all time highs. The broader based Russell small cap and Wilshire are badly lagging. The Nasdaq is making its third lower high.

Nasdaq New highs

The Wilshire 5000 as ratio of S&P 500:

Mega caps (S&P 100) versus average stock:

World ex-U.S.:

In other words, the count stands: