Sunday, June 5, 2016

Fake It 'til You Break It

Fake believe was always going to continue until the very last minute, and then end in mass panic...

Google trends: "Job report":

The probability of a recession occuring within the next 12 months has never been higher during the current economic recovery. This is according to the economists at JPMorgan.

JPMorgan's proprietary model considers the levels of several economic indicators, including consumer sentiment, manufacturing sentiment, building permits, auto sales, and unemployment.

Monthly payroll change with stocks:

Recession stocks ("safe haven")

Banks with GDP

Car dealers

Shopping malls

New home sales with U.S. population (blue line):

Asset managers

Treasury bond spread


Corporate profits

Full time jobs per capita

Capacity utilization rate of change

Output gap with 0%: