Saturday, June 4, 2016

Monetary Policy Is Cyclical

Forced currency unwind, which is now accelerating, ends the cycle...

I point out the obvious fact that Monetary Policy is cyclical, merely because global policy-makers, stock gamblers, the corporate media, stoned zombies, Harvard, and the President don't understand this fact. Despite the fact that Global Monetary policy has been at level '11' since 2008...

"There hasn’t been an initial public offering for a Silicon Valley–based tech company in seven months."

"The bad news for IPOs could be a bullish sign for the market."

I mean, what else could it be?

Monetary policy, to the extent that it works, is wholly cyclical. It functions by incentivizing the (mis)allocation of capital, the subsidization of speculation, and the distortion of currencies. In this cycle, the first two have already mean-reverted and the third - currency distortion - is now mean reverting on an accelerating basis. All three of these "effects" are cyclical and mean-reverting, meaning that once they go too far one way, the cumulative effect of policy becomes self-neutralizing. Because momentum from returning money flows override new incremental policy. This is what we are seeing in Japan, Europe, and China in real time. 

The best proxy we have for determining the ongoing efficacy of Monetary Policy, is the stock market, albeit not perfect. To the extent that Monetary Policy is at level '11' across the globe, we can judge the success of each Central Bank:





Misallocation of capital. Check. 
Over-subsidization of speculation. Check.

Unwinding currency distortion...

This is the S&P as ratio of $USD. Dollar strength is a late cycle phenomenon arising from interest rate differentials. It's de facto tightening, meaning it's mean-reverting for risk assets.

The Federal Open Mouth Committee has already achieved its goals via two years of dollar strength. The cycle is over: