Saturday, May 21, 2016

The Trap Is Set: Dollar Asset Mega-Unwind

Global risk asset markets are about to call the Fed's bluff...Dollar strength is the reason why U.S. stocks are stronger than the rest of the world. Now the world is piling into U.S. Muni bonds. A lesson in global hot money is about to be learned the hard way...

Divergent Central Bank policy has made the dollar a systematically crowded trade...Long-term Treasuries are not buying the nascent economic hopium, neither are currencies, neither is reality. The Fed and EconoDunces are ignoring persistent economic weakening of the economy. When the fantasy delusion of U.S. recovery implodes, this entire fabrication will collapse like a cheap tent...

The dollar (red) with One year Treasuries. At first the dollar was highly sensitive to short-term rates, but now the dollar is believing this charade less and less. Next the hot money will go home...



Speaking of seeking yield in the age of entitlement...

ValueWalk May 19, 2016
Yield-Starved Foreign Investors Are Flooding The U.S. Muni Market
Strange are the times when a third of all government debt around the world carries a negative yield, and yet such is the case today. From Japan to eurozone countries, investors are faced with the tough decision of accepting subzero yields, doing nothing—or seeking other so-called “safe haven” options

American Munis are attracing foreign investment, validating their "safe haven" status? The Idiocracy has gone FULL RETARD...




The mother of all global divergences:
The South African Rand is telling us that the U.S. dollar is massively overvalued based upon fake economic hopium...hence there has been far too much leveraged buying of dollar based assets, meaning U.S. "assets" are massively overvalued relative to global assets.

Stocks didn't get the memo. Yet.
Dollar Rand with S&P:

One of these is not like the others.
When the USD falls, U.S. "assets" will be along for the vertical ride...


Dollar / Rand with Dollar Index: