Wednesday, April 27, 2016

The 1987 Set-Up aka. Silence of the Dumbfucks

Extreme risk and extreme complacency at an all time high, counter-trend rally failure, third wave down,  accelerated by equity over-exposure (panic), program trading, and off-hours selling...

"No one saw it coming", because they were ALL IN at the time, like now: Fear of Missing Out Is Driving This Stock Rally...

In other words, my base case scenario:
Complacency was extreme on the counter-trend rally, until it wasn't...

Black Monday:

"The crash began in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe, hitting the United States after other markets had already declined by a significant margin"

"financial uncertainty may have resulted from the collapse of OPEC in early 1986, which led to crude oil price decreasing by more than 50% by mid-1986."

"As computer technology became more available, the use of program trading grew dramatically within Wall Street firms. After the crash, many blamed program trading strategies for blindly selling stocks as markets fell, exacerbating the decline"

"Also, the futures market in Chicago was even lower than the stock market, and people tried to arbitrage that"

"Some economists theorized the speculative boom leading up to October was caused by program trading"

Equity exposure:

JnJ has called two crashes already (2002, 2008), roll the dice bitchez...