Monday, April 18, 2016

Reinflating A Popped Bubble. Doesn't Work

There is no means to reinflate crashed asset prices without going through the deleveraging process. Trapped buyers are forced sellers at every point above the market. 

We're reaching the crack up boom stage in China wherein desperate policy-makers fabricate every data point and flood the system with asinine amounts of liquidity. They are just hoping that some of it sticks, to something. To date, they've generated a real estate boom and bust, an infrastructure boom and bust, a factory boom and bust, and a stock market boom and bust. All in the same cycle. Now they're trying to reflate crashed assets, that haven't been through a deleveraging cycle. Impossible...

Despite SEVEN YEARS at 0%, U.S. housing prices still haven't recovered from the last cycle. For several reasons, but mostly because capital is still trapped and mortgages are still underwater, constraining demand and creating shadow supply overhang...


Therefore, on an even larger scale, what global Central Banks are attempting is even more asinine now resorting to negative interest rates. EVERY asset class is/has rolled over, but they're still priming the pump with ever-more liquidity.