Monday, March 21, 2016

Winter Is Here. "More" Will Be Less.

The Idiocracy has repudiated reality. Wishful thinking is the new academic "rigour". EconoDunces don't believe in "cycles", they just create them, aided and abetted by mass conformity, and the relentless quest for "more"...

To say that Modern Economics is a colossal failure, is an asinine understatement. It has spread poverty across the globe on an unprecedented scale, and the major deflation has yet to take place. The macroeconomic theories of the day - Fiscal, Monetary, *Free* Trade, Supply Side PonziNomics, are all a bag of shite. The idea of top down management of an economy is a pure fantasy, and nowhere is that more visible than in China, the falling star of Globalization.

According to Kondratieff Cycle theory, economic cycles last approximately 60 years, and attend four seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter:

"The first stage of expansion and growth, the "Spring" stage, encompasses a social shift in which the wealth, accumulation, and innovation that are present in this first period of the cycle create upheavals and displacements in society. The economic changes result in redefining work and the role of participants in society. In the next phase, the "Summer" stagflation, there is a mood of affluence from the previous growth stage that change the attitude towards work in society, creating inefficiencies. After this stage comes the season of deflationary growth, or the plateau period. The popular mood changes during this period as well. It shifts toward stability, normalcy, and isolationism after the policies and economics during unpopular excesses of war. Finally, the "Winter" stage, that of severe depression, includes the integration of previous social shifts and changes into the social fabric of society, supported by the shifts in innovation and technology."

ZH: Oct. 8, 2014

Bear Markets in Stocks
Repudiation of Debt
Banking Crisis
Credit Crunch
Currency Crisis
Gold bull market

The long-term Elliot Wave count lines up well with the current Kondratieff cycle:

Most of what I wrote above is already known to most readers, even better than I described it, however, I wrote this to speak to the most important aspect of what is happening aka. the inevitability of cycles. The repudiation of Kondratieff focuses mostly on the repudiation of inevitability aka. fatalism. Human beings detest fatalism while at the same time doing everything possible to make it inevitable. If we are aware of something, then why don't *we* stop it from happening? This cycle more than any other puts that argument to rest. We live in a society that now believes 0% will fix 1%. Wherein gamblers rotate their remaining chips from one losing asset class to the next, and then the next. Three cyclical bubbles in fifteen years. Why didn't *we* stop any of that?

Cycles repeat because hairless monkeys as a whole are sheeple who follow each other around blindly. They're mass conformists. The fact that they don't acknowledge this is purely a function of over-sized ego. More importantly, cycles repeat because, innovation, growth, stagnation, excess, greed, hubris, decadence all repeat. The cycle is predicated upon human fallibility and a total lack of introspection. I'm not saying that collapse IS inevitable, only that the people who believe it's not inevitable are the ones making sure it is. 
Maybe one day we will live on the Starship Enterprise where the cycle no longer exists, but that day has yet to arrive. 

Winter is de facto.