Wednesday, February 24, 2016

The Greater Tool: The Morgan Moment Just Passed

This time Wall Street is the last dumb money...

Corporate Profits
Trading Activity/Bank stocks
Recession rotation
Carry trades
Average stock

Eerily reminiscent of 1929, two weeks ago, JP Morgan CEO stepped in and bought a significant amount of his company's shares. The stock (and all banks) rallied 10% on the news, but has already given half of it back...


"the rout is prompting investors to pull back from markets and firms such as Jefferies Group to signal weaker earnings from the business of helping companies issue and sell securities."

"U.S. financial stocks have declined more than any other major industry this year on concern that credit costs are increasing because of exposure to energy companies. JPMorgan said it would need to boost reserves for impaired energy loans by $1.5 billion" 

"Dimon Bullish
Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, taking the stage after Pinto, pointed to signs that earnings may improve:...a backlog of initial public offerings. It’s “very possible” for the market to do better in March, he said."

"The cycle isn't over, it's just resting. There's more dumb money born every day, we just have to wait until it comes to market in March, so we can harvest another batch of idiots..."

IPO Count with JPM (weekly):

"Where the fuck is the dumb money?"
IPO Composite mutual fund: