Monday, February 22, 2016

Oil's New Maginot Line. Has Been Tested Twice On Mega-Volume

Oil defended $45 for six months. $40 for three months. And now has tested $30 twice in a month, down to $26. I think we all see where I'm going with this...

Oil and stocks. Guess which is which.
Answer: it doesn't matter...



WTI crude with rate of change (lower pane) and implied volatility, compared to 2009:

The decline from the $45 bounce was ($60-$40) or -30%. The next leg down was ~-50% ($50-$26). Another leg lower of -50% would be mid-teens to a likely bottom until the rest of the world implodes, shortly thereafter...




This shows WTI overlaid with USO ETF volume. Mega-volume isn't holding price: two overlapping corrective a-b-c waves, compliments of short-covering...



The ETF hourly..."Don't tell us the ending"