Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Fake Optimism Is A Lethal Bias

"Great news! OPEC just cut its 10th deal in five days..."

Being an optimist means believing that the future CAN be better than the present or the past, assuming the right choices are made. Whereas, being a fake optimist means being a dunce jackass who makes the exact same asinine mistakes over and over again praying that this time the impossible will be possible.

France CAC (red) with S&P:
(blue arrow is current real-time level)
"Now this, rings a bell"

Needless to say we live in a mindless Borg of fake optimists receiving their directions from media mannekins who have the IQ of a fucking doorknob. 

These are a few disconnects from reality...

The S&P (black) versus the Dollar/Yen:

The OPEC deal rally fizzled, so then oil spiked on the latest inventory news (below). Meanwhile both oil mega-rallies came during futures rollover week, but I'm sure no one would manipulate the expiring contract on minimal volume...

I updated my data to show the drop in inventories (red line). Can you see it?

This shows the "strength" of this current rally in terms of up volume / down volume (hourly):

More importantly, the market is multi-month overbought...
McClellan Oscillator:

The Wilshire count didn't change:

Short-term count:
The last two times we saw this a-b-c ending pattern, what happened...

"Remember, everyone sell at 1950, but not before; or you'll fuck it up for everyone else..."