Friday, December 18, 2015

The Fossil Fuel Era Is Ending. Abruptly

OPEC's policy of mutual assured bankruptcy will concentrate future oil production in ISIS-controlled territory. Don't take my word for it...

Dec. 18, 2015
"Goldman sees oil bottom at $20 - the breakeven cash cost for highly levered high-cost US shale producers"

$20 is "ceteris paribus". Meaning that when oil hits $20, mass bankruptcies across the Energy sector and entire nations won't affect demand. Sure. And then with U.S. shale offline and Alberta tar sands offline, all oil supply will be concentrated in the Middle East which is en fuego...

"We will have to be very careful that our oil supply will be concentrated more and more on a very few low-cost countries in the Middle East. Given the current geopolitical situation of the Middle East…this may not be the best news from oil security point of view,"

Once ISIS dispatches Iran, given their 10:1 numerical superiority (Sunni:Shia), then they will tackle Saudi Arabia. 

At least that's what their brochure says...

The only "cure" for the Middle East is to abandon the Middle East and let the various divided factions destroy each other. The only thing they agree upon is their mutual hatred for the "Great Powers" both of which were already defeated in Afghanistan. Bombing them continually is like pouring gasoline on a fire. It's not as effective as one might think. But then again, we do live in an Idiocracy after all, where one bad decision leads to the next worst one. And the only way to get out of a tight spot is to apply 10x of whatever caused the problem in the first place. 

All of which is beside the point, because $20 oil will bring global insolvency and implode marginal demand. $20 will become $10 when jobless demand doesn't show up for work.

And then this shit show will end post haste, as they all realize at the same time, that the Middle East, on its way back to the Stone Age, wasn't the problem in the first place.