Thursday, October 8, 2015

Velocity of Decline: Biggest Short Covering Rally Ever

Short covering predicated upon weakening economic data is a necessary and sufficient condition for vertical collapse. Fundamentally, nothing whatsoever has changed...

"Good news is busting out all over...the economy is weakening fast"



The S&P just rallied 143 points in 8 days, due to short interest hitting an all time high as of September 15th. The rally was led by the most beaten down sectors.

Now what?
The last time short interest was this high was immediately preceding Lehman. So arguably the two largest short-covering rallies ever, were launched from the exact same level in the Emerging Markets (and All World) indices:





Not having a reliable S&P count, we instead look around for clearer signposts...


These sectors below led the counter-trend rally, and they all have the clearest Elliot Wave retracement (a-b-c) wave forms, confirming that the trend is now down with the market multi-year overbought:

Consumer staples:



Semiconductors:



Energy:


Transports:




Three year overbought: