Wall Street needs a rally in the fourth quarter to save the year. The stakes have never been higher. Knowing where we are in the business cycle is the difference between saving the year, versus losing everything - then again, it's just other people's money anyway...
One year ago, the Alibaba sell-off tanked the market into mid-October. The market rallied into year end. Similarly, in 2011, the market had a -20% debt downgrade "correction", bottomed in October and finished strong. The market has rallied in the fourth quarter, every year since 2008.
2011 redux, please?
Removing one's head from one's own ass, strongly suggests this is the end of the cycle. Global GDP growth PEAKED in 2011.
Commodities (red) with global growth rate
2011 redux, please?
Removing one's head from one's own ass, strongly suggests this is the end of the cycle. Global GDP growth PEAKED in 2011.
Commodities (red) with global growth rate
If it's not 2011, then it must be 1929 i.e. what happens when too much risk is taken at the end of a business cycle...
Too much risk visualized:
Nasdaq 100 with % of stocks above 200 day moving average
Nasdaq 100 with % of stocks above 200 day moving average
Red arrows show where the %200dma was six weeks after last year's sell-off, versus now:
Price / volume aka. momentum
The appropriately named Junk (bonds):
