Sept. 27, 2015
Bull/Bear Winner Take All
"Tick tock. High stakes poker. In my mind the October 2014 lows need to be broken in the next 3 weeks or it’s game over for bears"
First I address his points, then we get to my charts:
Where to begin...
"The market has carved out a huge head and shoulders top"
[You can do better]
"Breadth is horrific, which is prerequisite for a 'bounce'"
[Or a Crash]
"Funds have had a terrible year so far, and they need the market to end higher"
[A necessary condition for a crash]
"Post Mid-October is historically bullish"
[EVERY major stock market crash came in October : 1929 (late October), 1987 (late October), 2008 (Early October)]
"M1 Money Supply and Central Banks remain in easy mode"
[Liquidity is at Banana Republic levels, and lower than 2008]
"The Value Line Geometric (XVG) seems to be carving out a megaphone top"
[I don't need your help]
"This week even more Central Banks cut interest rates"
[That's because the global economy is what's known as 'collapsing']
"The Rydex Bull:Bear asset allocation indicates a huge amount of selling already"
[The allocation ratio peaked with the market, just like it did in Y2K - Are you fucking blind? ]
"It's like 1998 all over again"
[It's 2015 all over again]
My turn. Here we go...
Got break in the 50 week moving average after an 8 month top?
Got third momentum crossover in 20 years and clueless Fed?
Got collapsing price / volume?
Got carry trade reversal?
Got EM meltdown?
Got Y2K / Flash Crash / 1929 Deja Vu?
The last time China peaked the Dow peaked, same as this time, should we take that as a bullish omen?
Got Value Line Geometric at new low?
Got Global Risk off?
Got global macro collapse?
Got banana republic liquidity?
Got Global interest rates at 500 year lows and going lower every day?