Monday, August 25, 2014

Reality Check: Europe

The Euro is tanking, now at a one year low...

Portuguese stock market: Now lower than it was in 2009


Italian stocks


UK FTSE: 15 years of nowhere


France CAC:



German Dax: The only index to make new highs. Looking pretty wobbly now though...


Japanese Nikkei: Currently sitting at a level it first hit in 1986 - 28 years ago
I regard the Japan scenario for Europe to be the best case scenario and extremely impossible.
Japan's free money experiment almost imploded all of Asia back in 1997. The global cheap money doled out this time is orders of magnitude larger than that fiasco. No one knows how many different local and sovereign entities over-indulged themselves on cheap debt in this cycle. A cascading global debt liquidation is by far the most likely scenario, if not totally unavoidable. As always, the sequence of events will be critical to capital preservation.



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