Saturday, July 26, 2014

Ignoring the Lehman Indicators: In the Era of Risk Amplification

The dutiful money whores are following Wall Street straight into the abyss, no questions asked. All according to their "risk amplification plan"...

The "Lehman Event" was September 15th, 2008.
Which stocks peaked coincident with the end of the party last time? And which are peaking now?

Microsoft
Peaked early last time:



Ameritrade
Perfect timing in 2008. Peaked early this time?


Northern Trust
Perfect timing in '08:


Walmart
Perfect timing in '08. A tad wobbly now...


Molson Coors
Peaked just 3 months early in '08...




Transport Sector
Peaked 3 months early in 2008, but good timing in 2011. Still truckin' now (I know...)


Norfolk Southern
This is why I created this post. Good timing in 2008 and 2011 as well. Could turn out to be the best coincident indicator, only time will tell...


Recession stocks (consumer non-cyclical)
Perfect timing in '08. Double top in June and July so far...


JnJ
Perfect timing in '08 and 2011, looks to have peaked already now though...


IPOs
A great early warning indicator - always roll over early


Treasuries are always the best early warning indicator that shit's about to break, as they were in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 etc. etc...


Risk is ignored and amplified