Sunday, July 13, 2014

Bull Trap: High Stakes Game

Bets by small investors on continued upside are at a 3 year high. Bets by large investors on a "Black Swan" event are at an all time high.

Billionaires are betting millions on financial collapse. ETraders are betting on a Tesla rally.

After all, "Nothing is solved and everybody knows it". Some people always know more than others...

"Bull Trap"
"Investors who have bought after a bull trap indication often have a difficult time unloading their securities because they cannot find buyers"

Six week moving averages:
BLUE: CBOE equity put/call ratio (inverted) i.e. favoured trading vehicle of small speculators

20 year view with Russell 2000 (equity put/call data started in 2004):