Sunday, June 8, 2014

Market Tops are a Process...

Followed by an Event...

The "event" of course has greatest impact when literally no one expects it and hence no one is prepared for it. That said, all events are usually predictable ahead of time. Back in 2008 subprime was widely discussed, Bear Stearns had already failed, Fannie and Freddy had failed, WaMu had failed, CountryWide etc. Lehman was just the straw that broke the camel's back. The proximate "event". Everything anyone needs to know to predict an event this time around is fully documented and perfectly rationalized away. Connecting the dots is verboten in the Idiocracy - one must never, ever, connect the dots and otherwise destroy perfectly good plausible deniability.

Russell 2000 Small Cap Index: "Process" well underway...


One of these tops is not (symmetrical) like the other
Russell 2k versus S&P