Wednesday, June 25, 2014

2008 Deja Vu. The Idiocracy is in Denial

The U.S. is likely already in recession
2.9% drop in GDP is biggest during economic expansion since World War II

Dow up 50 Points...

In 2008, the recession was ignored, until long after it had already started. The first quarter GDP drop was totally ignored. GDP bounced back in Q2 and then fell off a cliff thereafter...
"Lately the Mainstream Media and Mainstream Economists have been bombarding us with the "happy talk" that IF there is a recession, then it will be short and shallow. "

When I wrote that in April 2008, the U.S. was already in a recession marked by the vertical gray bar below (backdated well after-the-fact of course) i.e. it started with first quarter down, second quarter up...

The Solution is once again Denial
From ECRI: US Money Slump Flashes Warnings as Economy Contracts
“We may get a snap-back in the second quarter but I don’t see us reaching escape velocity. The economy is below stall-speed, according to the Fed’s own model,” 

The Scylla and Charybdis of Deflation and Inflation
Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus are Being Withdrawn Into a Slowing Economy
"The concern is that this recovery may die of old age after five years, even though it has been the weakest expansion since the Second World War, failing to close the output gap or bring the long-term unemployed back into the workforce. The Fed fears it has exhausted its arsenal. “It is too awful to think about what will happen in the next recession, so nobody does,” said Mr Achuthan."

The Dow Jones Illusional Average
"And everyone lived happily ever after..."