Note to archaeologists who find this. Yes, pretty much everyone was smoking crack at the end of the everyone bubble. What happens when simulated prosperity goes on too long. It turns into human history's biggest circle jerk...
Yes, this Jamie Dimon:
Northman Trader voiced his concerns today about the absolute collapse in volatility and accompanying suicidal record volatility shorts. He points to the broadening (megaphone) top and makes a case that it is still intact, at least on the broader market. As always, he is a tad too circumspect for my taste. His goal is to be a good two way trader. My goal is to be a one way trader by avoiding historically record fraud and deception. There is absolutely nothing bullish in today's set-up aside from the sheer number of sheeple rushing to get sucked into the all time top in the Ponzi market.
I too have pointed out the broadening top in the past, but recently I switched my vantage point. Instead of a broadening top, it's looking more and more like a coiled rising wedge (see above), getting set to explode with extreme dislocation:
Josh Brown (video):
Dispensing the standard Ponzi advice circa 2019. To paraphrase:
"Valuations never matter"
"The Tech bubble doesn't matter"
"The breadth divergence bears have been harping about all year is about to break out to the upside. What will they say then?"
The bearish viewpoint, from the same article:
“Volatility is best summarized as a powder keg based on the narrowing of dispersion,” said Andrew Thrasher, founder of Thrasher Analytics, in a note. “The short-term risk is elevated for a pullback in equities and a material advance in volatility.”
Don't try this at home:
"Since when have Tech valuations mattered?"
Forbes: The Coast Is Clear
Remember when professional investors said they are two decade bearish?
Well that was with their own money.
"Managers will have to pile into highly volatile names -- including deep value and cyclical stocks"
"Defensive plays, on the other hand, are getting smoked"
"Dynamic hedging"
In summary, yes this is going to be fucking brutal when the everyone you know circle jerk explodes unexpectedly.
