Over the past two weeks, five Hindenburg Omens on the Nasdaq and four on the NYSE
Not confirming the Dow/S&P 2019 all time highs:
Transports
Retail
Homebuilders
Autos
Banks
Materials
Energy
Small caps
aka. 'Conomy
This is all in Trump's hands now. If he signs this bill, the likelihood of a trade deal collapses.
"U.S. President Donald Trump boasted that he alone had prevented Beijing from crushing the demonstrations with a million soldiers."
“If it weren’t for me Hong Kong would have been obliterated in 14 minutes,” Trump told Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends” without offering any evidence."
The story that was largely missed yesterday was the fact that the best performing S&P stocks, 5g semiconductor companies, were downgraded to "SELL": KLA Tencor, Applied Materials, and Lam Research.
"All three stocks have been strong gainers in 2019, easily outperforming the broader market, as well as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Lam Research has nearly doubled thus far this year, while KLA is up more than 80% and Applied Materials has risen more than 70%"
These stocks join Texas Instruments and Qualcomm in the recent downgrade party
In another deja vu of last year, AMD was the top performing S&P stock in 2018; when it rolled over, the market imploded.
This week the stock had a massive key reversal on the weekly:
Which means the last bubble has popped
Now everything is rolling over at the same time
Deflation trades:
Reflation trades:
Deja vu trades
'Conomy
Algos are just starting to figure out that option implied volatility (VIX) is too low relative to realized volatility:
“If there’s not a China trade deal, you are going to see the S&P 500 go down 10% in a heartbeat...It’s going to fall fast. If the talks collapse this time, I think it’s reasonable to assume that nothing is going to happen until the election.”
Third week record net short volatility:
It's all on Big Donny now
"A trade deal is very close. I just have to sign this legislation in support of Hong Kong"
