Fake trade deals, imploding economy, 2009-level monetary easing, $1 trillion deficit, institutions dumping stock, insiders cashing out, presidential impeachment.
There is only dumb money left in Trump Casino:
"On the bright side: That was a period which preceded the buying era of a lifetime for stock market participants."
That was a period that preceded a -50% sell-off. And of course recession.
The fake trade deal high is already wearing off:
"The Dow gave up 200 of its 500-point gain in the final half hour as markets realized there was a cessation of tariff hikes but no clear timeline for removal of the existing tariffs"
“The cold war will not go away just because there is a truce in the tariff war.”
“Tariffs have been the tip of the spear in Trump’s trade wars...The next fronts — capital flows, [more] export controls, supply chain duress, industrial policy — are the global plumbing of the real economy.”
The impact of this next round in the trade wars, Krueger said, “can produce exogenous shocks to the global system that can dwarf the tariffs.”
The most expensive lie in U.S. history:
"Trade wars are good and easy to win"
https://www.policyuncertainty.com/trade_uncertainty.html
The cyanide-laced Kool-Aid of record trade war risk, oncoming recession, and monetary heroin is reaching maximum potency. Central banks have done their level best at keeping gamblers in the casino, as risk grew inexorably. Why that is so good is not for me to say; however, beyond Trump's re-election, a lot is riding on central banks right now aka. "Everything". Too bad gamblers have been front-running central banks all year long. Because contrary to popular belief that means the next widely anticipated monetary bailout will only come AFTER the crash.
Which is why this is all just imagined reality:
There is only dumb money left in Trump Casino:
"On the bright side: That was a period which preceded the buying era of a lifetime for stock market participants."
That was a period that preceded a -50% sell-off. And of course recession.
The fake trade deal high is already wearing off:
"The Dow gave up 200 of its 500-point gain in the final half hour as markets realized there was a cessation of tariff hikes but no clear timeline for removal of the existing tariffs"
“The cold war will not go away just because there is a truce in the tariff war.”
“Tariffs have been the tip of the spear in Trump’s trade wars...The next fronts — capital flows, [more] export controls, supply chain duress, industrial policy — are the global plumbing of the real economy.”
The impact of this next round in the trade wars, Krueger said, “can produce exogenous shocks to the global system that can dwarf the tariffs.”
The most expensive lie in U.S. history:
"Trade wars are good and easy to win"
https://www.policyuncertainty.com/trade_uncertainty.html
The cyanide-laced Kool-Aid of record trade war risk, oncoming recession, and monetary heroin is reaching maximum potency. Central banks have done their level best at keeping gamblers in the casino, as risk grew inexorably. Why that is so good is not for me to say; however, beyond Trump's re-election, a lot is riding on central banks right now aka. "Everything". Too bad gamblers have been front-running central banks all year long. Because contrary to popular belief that means the next widely anticipated monetary bailout will only come AFTER the crash.
Which is why this is all just imagined reality:
"I bought for the trade war, but I stayed for the recession"
Aside from the trade war impacted stocks, the locus of implosion remains the Nasdaq. Which is about to get a ton of new insider (lockup expiration) supply compliments of Wall Street's pump and dump:
"Shares of 30 recently public companies become eligible for selling between now and the end of this year."
Each selloff in the IPO complex has been accompanied by a selloff in the S&P:
Investors Business Daily
The Big Picture, Wednesday
"Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in well below Tuesday's levels, continuing a trend in recent weeks of higher-volume declines followed up by lower-volume gains."
Pronounced distribution like this makes it a challenging environment to say the least for growth investors. Stocks just have a hard time making headway amid persistent institutional selling."
"Shares of 30 recently public companies become eligible for selling between now and the end of this year."
Each selloff in the IPO complex has been accompanied by a selloff in the S&P:
Investors Business Daily
The Big Picture, Wednesday
"Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in well below Tuesday's levels, continuing a trend in recent weeks of higher-volume declines followed up by lower-volume gains."
Pronounced distribution like this makes it a challenging environment to say the least for growth investors. Stocks just have a hard time making headway amid persistent institutional selling."
Hedge fund top holdings aka. momentum stocks
Are three wave corrective
As we didn't learn in 2008 via the Big Short - in securitized markets credit risk is binary. One week they're refinancing bankrupt companies, the next week they're not. This is the beginning of the credit crisis today's pundits have been saying doesn't exist.
Trade war ecstasy pushed Apple to a new all time high this week. A necessary and sufficient condition for Trump Casino reversal of fortune:
