Here is what we have learned over the past decade:
We have learned that you CAN trust people - to do what everyone else is doing, no matter how asinine the venture. To believe what failed in the past will work now. To question nothing and have answers for everything. To desperately follow demagogues. To seek inner gratification from external gratification. And to have no idea who or what to believe when the lying ends.
The current insane belief among the majority is that they can ride out recession in the most overvalued stocks.
The current insane belief among the majority is that they can ride out recession in the most overvalued stocks.
My how things can change in one year. This time last year GDP was running at a multi-year high compliments of the tax cut sugar high. Retail stocks were making new all time highs. One year later, GDP estimates have imploded down to 1.5% for the third quarter, which is -2.5% ex-deficit. A recession at any other time in U.S. history, prior to the age of Ponzi.
Which explains why the Google Trends search term "recession" is the highest since 2008:
Retail stocks peaked a year ago:
Recession stocks are leading
On a shorter-term basis, Hong Kong stocks had a great week as the rioting calmed down, and the news of renewed trade talks broke.
They are right back to where they were last December when the wheels came off the bus ahead of the FOMC meeting:
