Thursday, August 29, 2019

Third World Aspirations

The definition of a Third World country is one in which all consideration is put into surviving in the here and now, with no thought to the future. This modus operandi defines Trumptopia exactly - the strip mining of the future to pay for maximum consumption "now". Not even the slightest concern about the future. An old age home run by and for the Koch Brothers, maintaining a death grip on slash and burn policies to their very last breath (one down, one to go). Zero skin in the game long-term...

To date, Trump's approval ratings have held steady since the 2016 election. Only because his economic Jedi Mind Trick has done a fantastic job of fooling the overwhelming masses. However, when this con job explodes in every direction, his approval rating will plunge faster than the Dow. 

Ahead of the month of September I wanted to flesh out the "Lehman crash" hypothesis. After all, Lehman was a September event. At this late juncture there is no bullish hypothesis. Which is why ironically, too many bears on Wall Street has delayed the final collapse, making short-covering the last source of buying power.

Case in point, the broadening top that I've been discussing for months, finally became a topic of conversation on Fast Money yesterday. 

"Contrarians" might say, if too many pros are bearish, isn't that bullish? And the answer is no. Implosion will be delayed but not denied, as we saw last December:





And 2008


Today's risk exposure has a long way to fall





What the broadening top implies is smart money fleeing the casino, leaving the usual bagholders holding nothing but a big bag of bullshit.

Which describes Trump precisely. 




Despite all of August's volatility, the S&P 500 has gone nowhere. The average S&P stock is still pinned to the floor. Bear in mind that all of the major selloffs in the past two years have taken place at the beginning of a new month: Feb '18, Oct. '18, Dec. '18, May '19, Aug. '19. 

This week's rally was just more window dressing at the end of the month aided and abetted by weak shorts having the conviction of a coked up squirrel.