Monday, August 26, 2019

In Trump We Trust

Anyone who trusts Trump will trust anyone. Trump is not the real buffoon. The real buffoons are the people who still trust Trump after two years of non-stop lying. The greatest risk Trump's supporters face is Trump. Which they will learn the hardest way possible...




"We saved your seat Your Highness"





Overnight, the futures rallied because Trump - increasingly unglued by the faltering economy - fabricated a story that the Chinese are desperate to cut a trade deal. The Chinese government flatly refuted the story. Cramer is saying we should trust Trump. Because he never lies about anything.


“I’m aghast we trust the People’s Republic of China more than we trust the White House” 

We can doubt him, but in the end we’re doubting a guy that didn’t want the market to crash.”

Investors should trust that “Trump is going to be determined to weaken the Chinese economy,”


Where to begin
We should trust someone who fabricated a lie because he didn't want the market to crash? I have 100% faith that Trump can crash this market. If that is what is meant by trust.

As we see, the reason there is so much confusion amid unprecedented risk, is because speculators are constantly trying to figure out how to trade through a trade war in the hands of a bipolar lunatic. It's a fool's errand of the highest order. NorthmanTrader posited recently that any trade is only one tweet away from implosion. That's the whole point - Trump IS the greatest risk to the market. No one should be attempting to trade a trade war, aside from hedging risk to the maximum extent possible. Trump has been oscillating like a bipolar jackass for two years straight, and in the past week has come entirely unhinged:



"Red warning lights are flashing across Washington as even the now-typical levels of uncertainty and political chaos reach epic proportions."

Donald Trump’s affect, speech patterns and overall delivery this week have been alternately horrifying and hilarious. A combination of waking hallucinations, verbal tics, lies surpassing even his usual fabulist standard, aphasias and lunatic blurtings"

This week wasn’t just the usual Trump performance art; it was a new, strange and somewhat frightening level of antic. Even his allies whispered to reporters that perhaps the stress brought on by the prospect of an economic downturn was getting to him"


Indeed. He knows what is coming.

Which is more than we can say for the speculators at large. They are still trying to figure out where the eMini futures will land :15 minutes from now. All while ignoring the epic risk that has gathered in the background.

Which is the problem for this entire society - attention deficit.

Does anyone remember August 24th, 2015? Yuan devaluation sent shock waves through global markets leading to smash crash.

Fast forward four years and today's gamblers are trying to figure out how to profit from currency wars.





The S&P blew through the 200 day overnight but was rescued by Trump's latest act of desperate bullshit. 

The S&P has now tested the 200 day four times during this month. Each prior time, it reversed hard and rallied 100 points (1000 Dow points) back to the 50 day. Thus rewarding the BTFD gambit. If it doesn't happen this time, the underwear will be mighty soiled. 

Today's rally was compliments of Trump informing Cramer and his other acolytes that China has no choice but to bend the knee. And that Xi Jinping is his best friend and not his enemy as he said on Friday.

The real buffoons amid this lunacy are the people who still trust Trump.



“China called last night our top trade people and said. ‘Let’s get back to the table,’ so we will be getting back to the table...“I think we are going to have a deal,” 

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he was not aware that a phone call between the two sides had taken place. And Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Chinese state-run newspaper the Global Times, denied that negotiators had held the phone calls Trump described."


S&P 500 (hourly)






Tech Stocks (hourly)






Tech stocks (daily):





"What stocks should I buy in a trade war in the hands of a bipolar lunatic?"




You wouldn't have clicked that link if you didn't think it was true...