Monday, July 1, 2019

Imagined Reality 2019

This is the biggest algo-driven delusion in world history...

100% Fake.

"New all time high"




Disney markets gapped vertical today on the art of no deal, as Wall Street took the "good news" as opportunity to final lubricate the masses...





Any questions?




Only the S&P 500 made a new all time high today, unconfirmed by the Dow, Nasdaq, Russell small cap, and entire rest of the world (dollar basis). Within the S&P 500, only the Tech sector is making new highs. Unconfirmed by Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Microsoft - the largest stocks in the market...

In other words, due to algorithmic sector rotation, this is the clearest wave count we are going to get:









Semis and EMs are now synchronized:






As of today, the U.S. has now achieved the longest expansion in U.S. history. Capped off by the best June stock market rally since 1938. Two record achievements with no combined precedent. Which means, now is the time to get greedy:





The best first half since 1998 will bring acceleration in the second half.



"Half of respondents say they expect Q2 earnings to top expectations"

Tech is the top-performing sector this year after gaining 26% — the sector’s best first half since 1998 — and a majority of respondents indicated that they believe the group will continue to lead, with 84% calling it a top pick."



"With earnings season looming, 77% of companies issuing pre-announcements say their profit picture will be worse than Wall Street is expecting"

In terms of sectors, the two with the biggest negative pre-announcements — information technology and health care"








"The S&P 500 is at a record, but areas of the stock market with a reputation for economic prescience are sending warning signals that hearken to the global financial crisis.

It’s small caps and transportation stocks, whose performance has deteriorated at a much faster clip than other parts of the market. Relative to the S&P 500, each group is on the brink of hitting its lowest point since 2009."






In summary:
"There are times when a money manager has no choice but to behave as though he believes in things that don't necessarily exist. For us, that means being willing to be long risk assets in the full knowledge of two things: that those assets may have no qualitative support; and second, that this is all going to end painfully"

"Third, it's not our money, and we are under no obligation to tell the truth or serve client interest"








"No one saw it coming"