Thursday, July 11, 2019

Artificial Intelligence Is Not As Good As It Sounds

Without question the most infuriating aspect of the past ten years was the societal obligation to keep getting dumber and dumber in order to accept the ever-more facile narratives offered by today's alpha male con men. Refusal to drink the Kool-Aid deemed extremely anti-social. I am in clear non-compliance...

"Then we outsourced thinking"




We are now witnessing capital self-destruction on an epic scale. All due to Globalization's obligatory separation of supply and demand, for maximization of temporary profit.

Henry Ford: "Walter, how will you get those robots to pay union dues?"
Walter Reuther: "Henry, how will you get them to buy your cars?"

It makes perfect sense that this society of corporate automatons would place their faith in robots and artificial intelligence. Now featuring 80% of all stock trading carried out by machines. That faith in linear momentum algos will not be rewarded. 





There is a reason why the vast majority of IPOs are now unprofitable. It's because today's so-called "disruptor" companies are now literally buying growth. Instead of focusing on beating the competition through superior service and products, they are merely using cheap capital to subsidize the consumer at a lower cost of service thereby cannibalizing legacy industries. Uber and Lyft being two key examples. When those two companies stop subsidizing ride sharing, their growth rates will collapse. Silly Con Valley calls this "strategy" Blitzscaling - the all-out drive for market share without regard to turning a profit. This strategy used to be called "charity" or "non-profit". And when the anti-trust regulators came knocking, it was called predatory competition. 

It's this fantasy - similar to the mass automation fetish - that unlimited amounts of free capital should be deployed to replace people. Amazon announced today that they are planning to proactively spend $700 million "re-training" their existing employees. On the face of it, they are doing this out of the kindness of their hearts. In reality, they are getting ahead of the hue and cry for when they swap out their workforce for drones and robots. After all, no company in the history of the world has been subsidized more by capital markets than Amazon, in their quest to destroy legacy retail:

“While many of our employees want to build their careers here, for others it might be a stepping stone to different aspirations”


Getting back to the casino, this final Robo-rally is the biggest pump and dump in human history. 

A well-coordinated con job by the Executive, Money Printing, and Wall Street branches of government:


"Venture capitalists have never seen returns like this...total exit value for the first half of the year reached $188.5 billion"

“This unprecedented flood of newly liquid capital has already eclipsed every other annual exit value total"


"KA-CHING!!!"





The Financial Instability Hypothesis, Hyman Minsky

"Over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structure dominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance."

For Ponzi borrowers, the cash flows from operations are not sufficient to fulfill either the repayment of principle or the interest due on outstanding debts by their cash flows from operations"




"Financial stress is spreading, and top industry executives in Texas are arguably at their gloomiest in years. Consolidation and bankruptcies could pick up pace in the next few months"

Investors have soured on shale drillers, closing the door on fresh capital injections"






Here is a preview of what is coming next week as earnings season ramps up:


"the largest fastener distributor in North America, reported worse-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenue on Thursday. The company also particularly noted the damage the trade war has done to its business and the difficulty of countering the losses"


"We want rate cuts"





In all Ponzi schemes, there are those who get out before everyone else, and those who believe the bullshit to the bitter end...






In summary: