It was inevitable, given the conditioning, that impending recession would ignite a late stage manic melt-up...
Given last month's weak non-farm payrolls, and today's weak ADP report, Friday's jobs report has the potential to final implode this delusional rocket ride. One thing we know, hedges are minimal going into it.
May's meager overthrow of the October top was a bull trap, we'll soon know if this is another one. The best June in 80 years, and yet "the rally hasn't even started":
"A melt-up or mini bubble is considered a sharp move higher driven by investors late to the game looking to get in on a momentum shift. It’s often a sign of a late-stage bull market"
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Bernie Madoff would be proud. The U.S. 'Conomy is now nothing more than a massive circle jerk. A society of salesmen conning one another. Today's Idiocracy has finally winnowed all of life and the economic future down to just one Ponzi-chasing metric of success - the S&P futures. New highs, now synonymous with "greatest economy ever". All fueled by momentum algos and gamblers competing to bid up their own assets.
The belief in "free money" now total:
Given last month's weak non-farm payrolls, and today's weak ADP report, Friday's jobs report has the potential to final implode this delusional rocket ride. One thing we know, hedges are minimal going into it.
May's meager overthrow of the October top was a bull trap, we'll soon know if this is another one. The best June in 80 years, and yet "the rally hasn't even started":
"A melt-up or mini bubble is considered a sharp move higher driven by investors late to the game looking to get in on a momentum shift. It’s often a sign of a late-stage bull market"
I couldn't have said it better myself.
Bernie Madoff would be proud. The U.S. 'Conomy is now nothing more than a massive circle jerk. A society of salesmen conning one another. Today's Idiocracy has finally winnowed all of life and the economic future down to just one Ponzi-chasing metric of success - the S&P futures. New highs, now synonymous with "greatest economy ever". All fueled by momentum algos and gamblers competing to bid up their own assets.
The belief in "free money" now total:
"Stocks traded higher on Wednesday as investors bet on a potential rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this month after the release of weaker-than-expected economic data.
Private payrolls in the U.S. increased by 102,000 in June, ADP and Moody’s Analytics said. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected growth of 135,000"
In a repeat of last November, the G20 cyclical trade war relief rally lasted less than a full day on Monday. The past two days has been a blow-off top in the recession rally. Rampant global deflation is now the only game in town.
The Nasdaq scored a new all time "closing high", having just filled the last open gap from May, leaving five open gaps below the market.
"New record high"
All Ponzi schemes are about pure momentum.
This one is no different. Only a handful of stocks making new highs:
Software is seen as a safe haven from trade wars AND recession
Back in May, Jeff Gundlach asserted that U.S. stocks are already in a bear market. He used the NYSE Composite as proof that both the October high and the May S&P high were both fraudulent. He was right both times.
He blames social media for creating an echo chamber of like-minded idiots propagating Trump's Twitter bullshit. What I call the circle jerk. Everything he said two months ago is even more true today:
“The market hasn’t gone anywhere in15 17 months.”
"U.S. stocks are still in a bear market because the NYSE composite index has fallen “over 20% and has failed to return to its high.”
“It’s unbelievable the twilight zone that we’re sort of living in, where people just say things and it gets repeated. I think probably we’renumb dumb to that because of social media,”
Trump is making another attempt to stack the Fed with dovish lackeys so he can rig another election. Russian campaign assistance and well-timed tax cuts were just a warm-up for the main event.
Which speaks to the obligatory delusion of the day that a 2% Fed rate is enough dry powder to offset a recession. The overriding goal of Wall Street to squander what's left of Fed dopium inflating larger asset bubbles.
This one is no different. Only a handful of stocks making new highs:
Software is seen as a safe haven from trade wars AND recession
Back in May, Jeff Gundlach asserted that U.S. stocks are already in a bear market. He used the NYSE Composite as proof that both the October high and the May S&P high were both fraudulent. He was right both times.
He blames social media for creating an echo chamber of like-minded idiots propagating Trump's Twitter bullshit. What I call the circle jerk. Everything he said two months ago is even more true today:
“The market hasn’t gone anywhere in
"U.S. stocks are still in a bear market because the NYSE composite index has fallen “over 20% and has failed to return to its high.”
“It’s unbelievable the twilight zone that we’re sort of living in, where people just say things and it gets repeated. I think probably we’re
Trump is making another attempt to stack the Fed with dovish lackeys so he can rig another election. Russian campaign assistance and well-timed tax cuts were just a warm-up for the main event.
Which speaks to the obligatory delusion of the day that a 2% Fed rate is enough dry powder to offset a recession. The overriding goal of Wall Street to squander what's left of Fed dopium inflating larger asset bubbles.
Worse yet, the rest of the world is entirely out of dry powder. Where they go next to stimulate growth is "tbd".
Global yields are now in a death spiral, as the global hunt for yield has capital bidding away its own yield, with central banks leading the way.
Semiconductors are rolling over
China Tech deja vu
European stocks were moonshot today on news that Christine Lagarde may be the next money-printer-in-chief at the ECB.
The Dax is set up for another reversal of fortune:
Which leaves the ultra-crowded recession trade:
The balance of trade is following 2008 very closely. Bottomed in 2018 and is now rising with the expectation of Fed easing:
28 days until free money bailout...
Mind the gap
