Remember 2016 when Trump used Russians to rig an election? "No collusion" mind you, only harmless foreign assistance to subvert U.S. democracy. How about 2018 when he used a borrowed tax cut to buy the election? Stevie Mnuchin manipulating paycheck withholdings to give the illusion of a larger tax cut. The net result being more Americans owing taxes in April instead of receiving money as expected, which was earmarked to pay bills. What today's total fucking idiots inform us is improved household "cash flow management" by unexpectedly owing money.
Due to the complicity of Banana Republicans those last two times, this time Trump has been emboldened to up the ante massively by betting the global financial system on 2020. Our lives are now in the hands of an out-of-control megalomaniac, seeking to rig yet another election:
The Time magazine article, here, devotes almost the entire space discussing the unique and unprecedented carnival spectacle Trump believes will drive voters to the polls en masse in 2020 to re-elect his circus. It devotes almost no thought to his economic gambit which is far more ludicrous and parlous than anything else the article describes: Basically bet the entire financial/economic system on trade war brinkmanship by way of achieving re-election. A science fiction fantasy best summarized by Zerohedge, which puts the past year roller coaster ride of non-stop lying and false trade promises into context:
ZH: Trump's Master Plan Is Working
"...the President now views tariff threats as not only a successful negotiating tactic following the immigration agreement with Mexico but also a useful tool in pressing for looser monetary policy. If so, this suggests that the White House will at least threaten further tariff increases and might follow through with some of them."
The cornerstone of the "plan" apparently was to corner the Fed into lubing markets, which appears to have gone swimmingly. Handing Trump the "advantage" he was seeking ahead of this week's G20, while at the same time handing him control over monetary policy.
The operating hypothesis is that collapsing the global economy is now a viable re-election strategy. Which attends the also obligatory assumption that the Fed has control over not just the S&P futures derivative tail wagging the dog, but also the entire $200 trillion+ global asset market.
As Isaac Asimov as all that may seem, the casino class overwhelmingly took the bait.
What they are ignoring is the critical fact that markets have been anticipating a "world of easy money" for six months straight. Gamblers have been well-trained to front-run central banks.
Barron's this week: Double down on growth stocks and high yield plays:
"Just six months ago, it looked as if a decade of ultra-accommodative global monetary policies was ending. Now, interest rates are coming down en masse"
Today, strategists say they are advising clients to buy growth stocks over value names."
"low interest rates are the first to blame for the demise of value investing"
"growth assets are intangible which in many cases are not captured in book value and retained earnings, making the usefulness of book value and earnings questionable”
"My advisor says it's time to get in"
"I read that in Barron's"
Meanwhile, does anyone still remember 2015, when a minor Yuan devaluation sent the S&P 500 limit down and almost imploded global markets? See above.
Picture that scenario entirely out of Fed control across every risk asset class at the same time. Because that we are told is "the plan".
Now, instead of worrying about Yuan devaluation, we actively short it:
"still see additional tariffs as "more likely than not"
I suppose it was inevitable that a bipolar frat boy operating on Twitter would come to believe that he has dominion over the entire world and everything in it. That by pandering to his base through sheer charismatic bullshit he could be master of the universe. They in turn would feed his manic megalomania through ever-increasing adulation, until such time as the entire system was now a bargaining chip for re-election. While the masses chewed their cud complacently.
Drunken in a world of "easy money" Kool-Aid:
Buckle up, because all the world is now Trump's bet. And the hegemon is totally out of control.
Barron's
"What makes this different from periods in past cycles—say, right after the financial crisis—is that there is not much left to cut."
"You really have to stay appropriately bullish in the face of nothing but bad news"
"No one saw it coming"
