We're at that point in the cycle wherein the salesmen have to try that much harder to con the marginal dunce, to make the quarter. It's Ponzinomics, if you didn't buy your degree from Wharton, you wouldn't understand it. The biggest jobs miss since 2008 is the catalyst for a 50 point S&P short-covering rally, so far...
The casino was reaching prior oversold levels, and bounced at the 200 day. Both open gaps above the market just got closed, leaving multiple open gaps below the market, going back to December.
The Transports were multi-decade oversold at the end of last week:
Some bimbo on CNBC last week, it doesn't matter which one, was advising not to worry about the Transports, because the Railroads just made a new high.
Which is what happened in October 2008:
The long awaited Boeing crash has arrived compliments of 737s falling from the sky. Somehow the news always corresponds with parabolic speculation coming to a screeching halt.
The largest weight Dow component was down -17% from recent highs at the open. Volume is ~8x average at midday.
Chinese stocks are driving this short-covering rally back into the weekly island:
Oil is back-testing the broken trend-line deja vu of December
Retail sales in January "beat" expectations, but December was revised lower still. The fake wealth effect took a heavy toll. This latest (delayed) data will revise down Q4 GDP and Q1 GDP, as GDPNow just fell back to .2%.
Don't worry, it's only retail apocalypse:
"...just two months into 2019, it sure looks like the U.S. retail scene will continued to be plagued by a stunning number of store closures — and perhaps quite a few retailers going out of business for good."
In a single 24-hour period last week, Gap, J.C. Penney, and Victoria’s Secret announced they would be closing more than 300 stores combined"
In a single 24-hour period last week, Gap, J.C. Penney, and Victoria’s Secret announced they would be closing more than 300 stores combined"
Retail short-covering another last leg of the stool:
I had an epiphany today that one of the drawbacks with Ponzinomics, among a few others, is that the downside of the Ponzi cycle takes its toll on certain professions - realtors, investment advisors for example that rely upon steady asset price inflation. And when that goes in reverse, it feeds back into 'Conomy in the form of lower commissions.
Of course then the reasons to buy must become more urgent and hence more specious.
Of course then the reasons to buy must become more urgent and hence more specious.
Which is where we are in the "cycle"
I call this the crash ratio because it shows that the casino is held aloft by fewer and fewer very large stocks
This chart shows that last year's 10% and 20% decline have not deterred Skynet from shorting volatility
This should do the trick...
