With the leadership to match:
Unfortunately for Herbert Hoover, we don't know if the U.S. has the strongest 'Conomy in the world, because the data is still lagged, compliments of the shutdown.
What IS up-to-date is consumption confidence:
"The government shutdown rattled consumers and, unlike previous bouts, the numbers didn’t materially improve even after some 800,000 workers went back to work. That’s because there’s the possibility of another shutdown on Feb. 15, as Congressional negotiators remain at an impasse over funding the border wall desired by Trump."
"Leading" indicators through November:
"Do you see the stock market being higher one year from now"
As we see, the smart money has been selling since day one of Trumptopia.
All while the dumb money was wrapping the noose tighter around their neck.
CEOs are the most timely indication that the 'Conomy is rolling over:
This chart confirms that this is not the end of a business cycle, this is the end of a multi-decade secular trend. One trend degree larger than 2008:
A lot of e-commerce companies today are raising money "just to roll out more stores"
"Shares fell 5 percent Friday after the company announced on a call with investors that it would likely increase investment in 2019"
Further to the subject of artificial intelligence: In 2009, smartphone sales were a tiny fraction of what they are today. One decade later and somehow this device is ubiquitous and has taken over all human executive function:
"The global smartphone market has seen an exceptional growth since 2009, when 173 million smartphones were shipped worldwide. In 2015, this figure passed the 1.4 billion mark. Much of this increase can be attributed to the iPhone release in 2007."
Now, a generation of new drivers can't navigate out of their own neighbourhood without GPS. Still another generation seeks all personal affirmation from a handheld device on anti-social media. The snail mail "crackberry" appears benign next to the always-on text messaging addiction of today's dumbphone. How many millions of insomniacs keep each other luminescent company as a proxy for human companionship?
Arguably the worst outcome of this seemingly ubiquitous addiction is the Borg-like mentality it brought to reality. A mindless herd of like-minded dunces seeking affirmation from other like-minded dunces. Finding solace in rampant ignorance.
Fortunately, we can find solace in the fact that the age of artificial intelligence is self-destructing. The overinvestment in automation technology to replace humans will end in mass corporate bankruptcy on a scale not seen since the 1930s. This is the scenario I "predicted" in my book, taking place in real-time.
Cheap capital emanating from outsourcing the economy, recycled into bankruptcy, by human history's biggest cabal of MBA-addled corporate drones.
The Smoot-Hawley trade war is the final nail in the coffin. Just this week we were reminded of the co-dependency between China's economy and S&P 500 profits. 100% correlation AND causation:
"So far this week, more than 90 listed companies have issued warnings of profit losses for last year."
“Corporate earnings are worse than many had expected"
“Corporate earnings are worse than many had expected"
"Apple's iPhone business is in decline -- and there appears to be no end in sight...The shrinking iPhone sales led to Apple's first holiday quarter revenue decline since 2000...Apple's sales in China fell considerably. It reported revenue in the region of $13.17 billion, down from $17.95 billion in the same period a year ago."
-25% year over year sales decline in China:
Exit Stage Right:
All we ever need to know about the deranged right, we learn compliments of Jimmy Kunstler. A fantastic fiction writer if there ever was one. True to form, he would prefer a clueless billionaire Barista-in-Chief before contemplating the worst-case-scenario: a female president for the first time in U.S. history. Even more ludicrous we are to believe that there are no anti-semites on the alt-right. Unfortunately, the recent historic rise in attacks proves our favourite fiction writer wrong there too. Donny's patented intolerance - his only political asset - has given free reign to the dregs of society. It appears that 1939 and the rise of nationalism is a lesson long since forgotten by those who've been led to believe that the History Channel is for learning about Ancient Aliens. Here's how it works, historically speaking: if you don't stick up for other cultures, then when your turn comes around, there's no one to stick up for you. Let's say because you blame the "brown horde" massing at the border for all the world's problems. When everyone knows it's a bunch of racist bullshit.
And who on the right wouldn't believe that an out-of-touch billionaire will save the middle class. To be sure, once Donny's last casino collapses we're going to need a whole lot more CappuccinoConomy. Because the decade of McJobs created under Bush lasted all of nine months before they were fed into the quarterly profit hopper.
A sampling from Jimmy's rambling incontinence:
"The problem-of-problems (and there are many) is that America has shot its wad borrowing money to keep things going - things like the consumer economy, suburbia, generous pensions, agribusiness, health care, higher education"
No Jimmy, it was tax cuts, tax cuts, and more tax cuts for the bailout class. My paycheck didn't inform me that Social Security and Medicare deductions were heading straight to the Cayman Islands - it took Banana Republicans to point out that these are now "entitlements". In developed countries, they call that "theft".
But one Howie to another you don't have to be a genius to see through their transparent intentions:
"Schultz openly declared his decision to run as an Independent was based on the idea that he’d have to “lean left” to win the Democratic nomination. This is rich-speak for “I obviously couldn’t win the nomination if I had to compete honestly.”
His plan therefore is to skip the grueling Democratic primary and buy his way past one tier of certain electoral failure, jumping straight to the general. Once there, he’ll spend just enough of his personal fortune to split the anti-Trump vote and re-elect the dumber version of himself currently in the White House."
"I see through you, I see through you
Your dirty tricks, you make me sick"
Your dirty tricks, you make me sick"
