Saturday, January 26, 2019

The Grapes Of Wrath 2019

All of the global risks and delusions are coalescing at this critical juncture. The key driver behind Globalization is the baseline assumption "exploitation as usual". When the global Ponzi scheme exploded in 2008 it was taken for granted that everyone would adopt their standard positions. No dissension in the ranks. I suggest that won't be the case this time around...






It's the "Let them eat cake" theory of governance, on display everywhere we look. For example, this week Trump's massively deranged and incompetent economic thought dealer, Crazy Larry, called a month of forced work sans paycheck "volunteering", out of gratitude to Donny. This is the kind of stupid shit we've become all too desensitized to. Prior generations would have shoved this entitled frat boy garbage back down their throats:



Getting back to implosion in broad daylight, this week is the Fed meeting. All five major selloffs in 2018 came just before or just after FOMC meetings.




Speaking of critical junctures, the Dow has now traveled 3,000 points since the rally started exactly one month ago today. Backtesting the 200 dma.

You know you're in a bear market when the casino covers the same distance in one month that it took three months to cover into an all time high blow-off top:



This is where it gets interesting. Recall that on Friday (yesterday), the Wall Street Journal broke the story about Fed Quantitative tightening possibly ending. 

The dollar got shellacked on the news, as the last vestige of Trumptopian reflation collapsed:


"On Friday, the greenback plunged to its low for the week after a report that Federal Reserve officials are nearing a decision on when to end the reduction of the bonds it is holding on its balance sheet"

Recession stocks got monkey hammered on the news presumably because a massive rotation back to bonds is now in the offing:





"In recent days, though, Powell and his colleagues have sought to assuage Wall Street with talk that policymakers will be patient with policy moves and are attuned to the messages coming from markets. That kind of talk, though, often comes before economic downturns"


It would indeed be ironic if Fed capitulation to reality was the catalyst for final implosion, following a year of policy divergence.